Insurance
Loss curves, return periods, impact & payout simulator
Insurance
Built for: catastrophe underwriters, reinsurers, and parametric product teams.
What you see: a 40-year annual loss curve, return-period scatter (single-event severity vs. frequency), and an interactive payout simulator that converts a chosen pure premium and limit into expected loss and reinsurance cession.
How to read it: the VaR 95% stat is the loss a 1-in-20 single event would generate against the AGORA database — use it as a starting point for capital allocation. The simulator below lets you test premium adequacy and retention layers in seconds.
.pkl Random Forest models (feature importances, 64 Catalonia training rows, FloodPotential zones) imported directly from the project repository.Total historical loss
€1.78B
AGORA 1981–2020
Mean annual loss
€68.6M
across covered years
VaR 95% (single event)
€50.6M
1-in-20 event
Episodes priced
82
AGORA records
Impact estimation — physical exposure
Random Forest predictions for AffectedHouses (64 events), AffectedPeople (64), EconomicLoss (126 AGORA).
Houses damaged
4,346
8 modern events + 56 DesInventar
People affected
10,017
8 modern events + 56 DesInventar
Economic loss (AGORA)
€1.78B
82 AGORA episodes 1996–2020
Fatalities
4
8 modern events
| Event | Date | Province | Damaged | Destroyed | People | Deaths | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tàrrega flood | 07 Sept 2019 | Lleida | 150 | 50 | 800 | 2 | news_ACA |
| Francolí flood | 30 Oct 2019 | Tarragona | 200 | 80 | 1,200 | 0 | ICGC_Riuades |
| Ter flood Gloria | 23 Jan 2020 | Girona | 300 | 100 | 2,000 | 1 | ICGC_Riuades |
| Tordera flood Gloria | 24 Jan 2020 | Barcelona | 250 | 80 | 1,500 | 0 | ICGC_Riuades |
| Fluvià flood Gloria | 24 Jan 2020 | Girona | 180 | 60 | 1,000 | 0 | ICGC_Riuades |
| Llobregat flood Gloria | 03 Feb 2020 | Barcelona | 350 | 120 | 2,500 | 1 | ICGC_Riuades |
| Montsià flood | 03 Sept 2021 | Tarragona | 100 | 40 | 600 | 0 | ICGC_Riuades |
| Alcanar flood | 03 Sept 2021 | Tarragona | 80 | 30 | 400 | 0 | ICGC_Riuades |
Suggested premium
€92.6M
Retention
€10.0M
Reinsurance need
€50.0M
| # | Event | Date | Category | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AGORA · 19821106 | 1982-11-06 | Cat 3 | €994.0M |
| 2 | AGORA · 19831106 | 1983-11-06 | Cat 2 | €198.5M |
| 3 | AGORA · 19941008 | 1994-10-08 | Cat 3 | €85.0M |
| 4 | AGORA · 20200119 | 2020-01-19 | Cat 2 | €66.3M |
| 5 | AGORA · 20060912 | 2006-09-12 | Cat 2 | €50.6M |
| 6 | AGORA · 20191021 | 2019-10-21 | Cat 3 | €44.3M |
| 7 | AGORA · 20051011 | 2005-10-11 | Cat 2 | €42.1M |
| 8 | AGORA · 19990913 | 1999-09-13 | Cat 1 | €32.6M |
| 9 | AGORA · 19870927 | 1987-09-27 | Cat 3 | €32.0M |
| 10 | AGORA · 20000609 | 2000-06-09 | Cat 3 | €27.4M |